What would happen to crypto if Trump fired Powell?
Reportedly, U.S. President Trump is planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a move that could trigger a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. If Trump were to dismiss Powell, the experience of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's interference in central bank operations serves as a cautionary tale. It led to a currency collapse and increased investment in Bitcoin and stablecoins.
If President Trump actually carries out his reported plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell, further driving down the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the U.S. stock market, investors might accelerate their shift away from the dollar towards censorship-resistant and seizure-resistant assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins.
Turkey's experience offers a significant lesson. Due to President Erdogan's repeated interventions in the central bank's operations, the Turkish Lira (TRY) has steadily depreciated over the years. Since 2020-21, the Lira's devaluation has triggered capital flight into Bitcoin and stablecoins.
Trump's Potential Dismissal of Powell: Trump's Conflict with the Fed
Trump has publicly feuded with the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Powell for years, criticizing Powell for being too slow to cut interest rates. However, Trump's recent criticism has reached a fever pitch, with reports indicating that he is exploring ways to remove Powell. Powell recently warned of the risk of stagflation, while the President reiterated his demand for lower borrowing costs and suggested that inflation is not a concern.
Powell's cautious approach stems from survey data regarding inflation expectations triggered by trade wars, expectations that could become self-fulfilling. However, recently, Trump went further, calling Powell a "big loser" and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are cut immediately.
Lessons Learned from Turkey
Erdogan began interfering with the central bank's operations in 2019, and since then, the Lira has plummeted against the dollar from 5.3 to 38.
It all began in 2017 when Turkey's inflation rate reached double digits. The following year, inflation remained high, prompting the country's central bank to raise the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.
This move was likely against Erdogan's wishes, and in July 2019, he issued his first decree, firing the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Murat Cetinkaya. From then until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees, dismissing and appointing numerous Turkish central bank officials. Throughout this period, inflation remained high, and the Lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.
Erdogan stated in 2021: "We are definitely against high interest rates. We will reduce inflation and exchange rates through low interest rate policies… High interest rates make the rich richer and the poor poorer. We will not allow this to happen."
According to TradingEconomics data, as of 2025, Turkey's inflation rate is near 40%. This experience serves as a warning for Trump, highlighting how interfering with central bank independence – especially in the face of looming inflation – can undermine investor confidence and lead to a collapse of the national currency.
This doesn't necessarily mean the dollar will collapse like the Lira, but a significant devaluation is possible.
Given that the dollar is the world's reserve currency and the U.S. Treasury market is a cornerstone of international finance, such a move could create even greater instability in global markets. If wiser counsel does not prevail, U.S. investors, like the Turks, may be incentivized to move capital out of U.S. assets and into Bitcoin and other alternative investments.
Worth noting: Earlier this week, the dollar fell to a three-year low, and Wall Street also declined in tandem, but Bitcoin, which usually follows Wall Street's sentiment, bucked the trend and rose. (Specific Bitcoin price data should be added here to quantify the increase.) Is this just the beginning?
